Expected goals, or xG, is one of the most important metrics in modern football analytics. It assigns a probability to every shot based on factors like distance from goal, angle, whether it was a header or a foot shot, the speed of play, and the defensive situation. A penalty has an xG of about 0.76 — meaning 76% of penalties are scored. A shot from 30 yards out might have an xG of just 0.03.
The concept is simple: not all shots are created equal. A striker tapping the ball into an empty net from two yards out has a very different scoring chance than a midfielder volleying from the edge of the box. By summing the xG of all shots in a match, analysts can determine whether a team "deserved" to win based on the quality of chances they created, regardless of the actual scoreline.
Distance is the single biggest factor affecting xG. Close-range shots convert at rates above 70%, while shots from outside the box typically convert below 10%. Angle matters too: shooting from the center of the pitch gives a wider target, while tight angles near the byline leave very little net to aim at.
In Tactiko, shot probability is deliberately simplified to create clear tactical trade-offs. Shooting from right in front of goal gives you a 75% chance to score — the keeper has 4 positions to choose from and covers just 1. From close range on the sides, the keeper has 3 positions, giving you a 66% chance. From distance, it's a coin flip: 50%.
These probabilities create meaningful decisions. Pushing into the center gives the best shot odds but requires navigating through more defenders. Shooting from the wings is easier to set up but slightly less likely to score. Long-range efforts are a gamble — sometimes worth taking if you can't break through.
These are the real probabilities in Tactiko. Every shot is a calculated risk.
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